Evaluation of Medicines Forecasting and Quantification Practices in Various Public Sector Hospitals Using Indicator Based Assessment Tool

An effective medicines quantification process seeks to ensure the availability of the right medicines in the right quantities, at reasonable prices, and at recognized standards of quality. This prospective study was carried out for a period of one year, from January 2013 to January 2014 to evaluate various medicines quantification practices prevalent at various public health facilities of District Srinagar, the summer capital of J&K state. One super speciality children’s tertiary care hospital, one Govt. Medical College Hospital, one District Hospital, one Sub District Hospital and one Primary Health Centre were selected for the study. A set of 27 qualitative and 05 quantitative indicators were developed, validated and used to study the availability of quantification data for forecasting needs, various quantification procedures/methods adopted and financial transactions involved in drug quantification practices. Indicator based assessment showed that, Average monthly consumption, distribution data, seasonal variations, stock in hand and purchase orders were used for assessment of quantification and forecasting of drug needs at study health facilities. Only Children’s Hospital was found to have records for actual drug needs, however, current medicine usage records including daily patient visits and monthly work done reports were found to be available and accurate at every health facility surveyed. Average monthly consumption was used as a standard method for quantification in all facilities where as maximum and minimum stock levels were not defined including delayed payments resulting into frequent stock outs except at Children’s Hospital. Quantitative assessment found the actual lead time of 30 days at Medical College Hospital followed by 25 days at District Hospital and 15 Days at Children’s Hospital.